Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xadca…4013 other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,645 (+10%) realized +$2,649 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$964per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$5,106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$412
7 days+$1,335
14 days+$2,350
30 days+$2,350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$2,381
crypto 12% +$195
sports 1% −$223
world 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.0% -12.2% 55% 45% +1.2%
≤30d 24 -8.4% -17.1% 38% 29% +0.3%
≤90d 24 -8.4% -17.1% 38% 29% +0.3%
all 24 -8.4% -17.1% 38% 29% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 29% +0.3%
10% -25.1% 29% -9.3%
15% -32.3% 25% -18.1%
20% -38.9% 25% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,010) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$434 vs −$104 · ×4.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$5,106
Realized+$2,649
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage12d
Avg bet$964
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $3,000 $3,017 +$17 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $1,010 $1,046 +$36 (+4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 52¢ $600 $543 −$57 (-9%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,010 −$351 -35%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,017 +$227 +22%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $253 +$150 +60%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $708 +$385 +54%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $505 −$238 -47%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5,714 +$596 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $704 −$277 -39%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $253 +$178 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,013 +$726 +72%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7,012 +$514 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$10 -9%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$359 -71%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 14 $218 −$6 -3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 14 $235 −$15 -6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,743 +$996 +57%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $256 −$203 -79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $142 −$7 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $49 −$4 -9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $85 +$134 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 37¢ $273 9m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 52¢ $386 27m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $404 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $253 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 59¢ $458 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 87¢ $3,012 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 33¢ $119 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 41¢ $148 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $6,310 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $4,704 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $135 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 35¢ $100 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $253 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $253 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $253 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,739 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,526 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $6,004 7d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $92 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,106.45 · official $5,106.45 (match) · 88 history records