Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AD 0xadc9…eb69 other 146 markets active 5h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,130 (-1%) realized −$2,132 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate16%23W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,394per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$20
14 days+$51
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$96
other 37% −$1,455
sports 13% −$602
world 4% −$10
culture 1% −$3
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 41 +3.4% -6.5% 10% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 118 -5.6% -14.6% 9% 6% -11.1%
all 144 +3.4% -6.5% 16% 12% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 12% -10.5%
10% -15.4% 12% -19.1%
15% -23.6% 12% -26.9%
20% -31.1% 10% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,817) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$32 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$491
Realized−$2,132
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses23 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)144 / 146
History coverage122d
Avg bet$1,394
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $287 $288 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $202 $203 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,106 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $917 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,571 −$4 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,457 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $5,749 −$6 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,515 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,877 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,090 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 07 $60 +$54 +90%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $506 −$1 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $50 +$25 +50%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $1,150 −$1 -0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 02 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $607 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $407 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,043 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $6,462 −$7 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $2,086 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $648 −$1 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $689 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $42 +$46 +109%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $49 +$45 +93%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,165 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,384 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $3,243 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 19 $303 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,890 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $3,025 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $2,776 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $5,065 −$5 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 07 $3,071 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,752 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 05 $566 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $486 5h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $487 6h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $482 7h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $483 9h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $452 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $452 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $459 5d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $460 5d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $475 5d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $476 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $500 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $501 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $504 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $505 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $432 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $433 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $503 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $504 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $315 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $316 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $202 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $632 8d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $633 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $510 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $511 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $534 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $534 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Under 52¢ $60 11d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $506 12d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $506 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $491.00 · official $491.00 (match) · 519 history records