Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:01:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xadc9…f6a6
other · 4 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$4 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$80 · open −$76
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$64
Realized+$80
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage3d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit25%
Chart Positions 1 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$80
14 days+$80
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 24¢ $140 $64 −$76 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $95 −$4 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$86 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$2 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 93% +$7
crypto 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $91 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $91 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $95 15h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $137 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +51.5% +37.0% 33% 33% +34.0%
≤30d 3 +51.5% +37.0% 33% 33% +34.0%
≤90d 3 +51.5% +37.0% 33% 33% +34.0%
all 3 +51.5% +37.0% 33% 33% +34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.0% 33% +34.0%
10% +23.9% 33% +21.2%
15% +12.0% 33% +9.5%
20% +1.0% 33% -1.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.95 · official $63.95 (match) · 8 history records