Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0xadc8…9490
crypto · 599 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$129 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$129 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses468 / 131
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)599 / 599
History coverage380d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 0 History 599 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 06 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +28%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 03 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 11 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 11 $1 +$1 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 09 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 09 $13 +$7 +56%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 09 $13 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 09 $1 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 09 $12 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will "Palantir" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Apr 25 $8 $0 +3%
Will "Shit" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All-In Pod Apr 25 $16 −$16 -98%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 25 $11 +$3 +26%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 25 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 25 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 25 $8 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 25 $6 +$2 +28%
Will "Fuck" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All-In Pod Apr 25 $6 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 24 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 24 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 24 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 24 $10 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 55% +$57
politics 20% −$32
other 13% −$99
finance 4% −$24
sports 3% −$39
world 3% +$7
weather 2% −$1
economics 1% −$4
culture 0% +$6
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $6 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -9.9% -18.5% 74% 37% -4.5%
≤30d 24 -4.4% -13.5% 79% 42% +1.1%
≤90d 286 -15.8% -23.8% 75% 17% -19.9%
all 599 -3.6% -12.7% 78% 33% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 33% -11.0%
10% -21.1% 17% -19.5%
15% -28.7% 11% -27.3%
20% -35.7% 7% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1858 history records