Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AD 0xadc8…9977 crypto 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$700 (-8%) realized −$700 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%34W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$268
7 days−$268
14 days−$268
30 days−$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,493
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -11.1% -19.5% 47% 41% -21.3%
≤30d 17 -11.1% -19.5% 47% 41% -21.3%
≤90d 81 -4.8% -13.8% 42% 37% -28.7%
all 81 -4.8% -13.8% 42% 37% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 37% -28.7%
10% -22.1% 30% -35.5%
15% -29.6% 25% -41.8%
20% -36.5% 21% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$76 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$700
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses34 / 47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage52d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $106 −$76 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $309 +$208 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $203 +$42 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $105 +$204 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $208 −$81 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$87 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$75 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $94 −$90 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 04 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 04 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 04 $205 −$50 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 04 $205 −$18 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 04 $208 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 04 $209 +$59 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 04 $205 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 04 $195 +$33 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 04 $103 +$88 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 04 $103 −$101 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 04 $146 +$32 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 04 $190 −$14 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 04 $115 +$75 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 04 $170 −$35 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 04 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 04 $156 +$31 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 04 $103 +$63 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 04 $83 +$72 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 04 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 04 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 04 $205 +$69 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 04 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 04 $104 −$25 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 04 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 04 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 04 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 04 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 04 $34 +$32 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 04 $214 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 04 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 04 $207 +$100 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 04 $205 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $309 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $244 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $203 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $128 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $191 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $175 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $94 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $94 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $114 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $154 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $187 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $152 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records