Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadc7…75cf other 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate30%27W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$17
world 36% +$1
politics 14% −$6
sports 7% +$7
economics 1% $0
tech 1% −$12
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 60% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 28 -1.5% -10.8% 39% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 42 +45.7% +31.8% 38% 5% -9.7%
all 89 +21.4% +9.9% 30% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 4% -9.8%
10% -0.7% 3% -18.4%
15% -10.3% 2% -26.3%
20% -19.1% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses27 / 62
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage282d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $107 $107 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $107 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $248 −$3 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $95 +$2 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $105 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $175 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $62 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $98 +$2 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $129 +$1 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $106 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $20 −$1 -5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $107 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $104 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $202 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $179 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $203 −$2 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $133 +$6 +4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $92 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $126 −$8 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $128 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $3 +$2 +67%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $104 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $96 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $107 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $99 −$3 -3%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 15 $511 +$3 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $46 −$12 -25%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 27 $4 $0 -4%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $86 −$6 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $25 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $741 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $334 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $117 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $672 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Mar 31 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 25 $44 $0 -1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 15 $6 $0 +4%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 15 $28 −$13 -48%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $14 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 26 $33 +$4 +12%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $107 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $107 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $107 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 29h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $1 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $106 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $105 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $43 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $76 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $83 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $95 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $100 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $62 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $54 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $46 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $54 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $98 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $96 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $95 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $107 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $105 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $106 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.23 · official $107.58 (match) · 481 history records