Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
AD 0xadc5…6aa4 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 559d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,064 (-21%) realized −$887 · open −$177
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$1,309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$1,997
other 42% −$46
sports 3% +$921
world 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +84.6% +67.0% 27% 27% -8.0%
≤30d 11 +84.6% +67.0% 27% 27% -8.0%
≤90d 11 +84.6% +67.0% 27% 27% -8.0%
all 13 +62.6% +47.1% 23% 23% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.1% 23% -34.4%
10% +33.0% 23% -40.6%
15% +20.2% 23% -46.4%
20% +8.4% 23% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +159% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$481 vs −$241 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

559d coverage
Net worth$1,309
Realized−$887
Unrealized−$177
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions25
Markets (closed)13 / 38
History coverage559d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $150 $137 −$13 (-9%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $80 $75 −$5 (-6%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+6%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-3%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? No 12¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 18¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $80 $45 −$35 (-43%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 17¢ 16¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $52 $28 −$24 (-46%)
Will Iran reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-47%)
Will Qatar reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $50 $23 −$27 (-55%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 14¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 13¢ 13¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 2¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $143 +$281 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $153 +$246 +161%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $67 +$917 +1372%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -97%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? Jun 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
South Korean President impeached in 2024? Dec 06 $850 −$850 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Dec 06 $900 −$147 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 15¢ $21 1h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 13¢ $15 1h
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 3¢ $15 1h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $51 1h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $46 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 12¢ $51 1h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 23h
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $71 23h
Will Iran reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 23h
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 23h
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 23h
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 23h
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 2d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 2d
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 2d
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $41 2d
Will Iran reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 2d
Will Qatar reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 2d
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $424 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,309.43 · official $1,309.43 (match) · 56 history records