Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:36:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xadc0…0745 crypto 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$77 (+1%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%35W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$62
14 days+$95
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 35 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 35 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.5%
all 35 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 0% -8.5%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses35 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage20d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 25? Jun 25 $384 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 25? Jun 25 $2,972 +$25 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 24? Jun 24 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 22-28? Jun 24 $1,277 +$11 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? Jun 24 $674 +$8 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $220 +$6 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 24? Jun 24 $79 +$4 +5%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.15 on June 22? Jun 22 $21 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 22? Jun 22 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 21? Jun 22 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.15 on June 20? Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 19? Jun 20 $128 +$2 +2%
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on June 18? Jun 18 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $317 +$9 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 16? Jun 16 $92 +$2 +2%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? Jun 15 $703 +$6 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 15? Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $61 +$1 +2%
Will XRP reach $1.20 on June 15? Jun 15 $157 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $945 +$8 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $85 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.15 on June 11? Jun 11 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $65 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 June 8-14? Jun 10 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $45 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 8? Jun 08 $41 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,650 on June 7? Jun 07 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $65 on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,600 on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $388 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $384 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,997 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,486 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,486 1h
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $89 22h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 22-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,288 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $682 22h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 22-28? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,277 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 99¢ $674 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $226 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 97¢ $220 25h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 26h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 24? BUY Yes 95¢ $79 26h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3d
Will Solana reach $75 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 3d
Will XRP reach $1.15 on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 3d
Will XRP reach $1.15 on June 22? BUY Yes 98¢ $21 3d
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $92 3d
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 3d
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $91 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 4d
Will XRP reach $1.15 on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 5d
Will XRP reach $1.15 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 5d
Will Solana reach $70 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 5d
Will Solana reach $70 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $128 5d
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 7d
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 7d
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records