Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:43:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AD 0xadbd…c7d1 world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% $0
other 23% $0
politics 8% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 18% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 18% 0% -9.5%
all 29 +0.3% -9.3% 31% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.52 per $1 lost it wins $4.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage468d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Dec 12 $13 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 10 $14 $0 -1%
X allowed to operate in China before May? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 30 $14 $0 +2%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or below on March 11? Mar 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14? Mar 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 09 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $5 41m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $28 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $33 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $24 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $33 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 41h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $21 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $21 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $32 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $32 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $33 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $33 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records