Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:25:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xadb9…2895
crypto · 17 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$29 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$24 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day341.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 59¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $83 +$75 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $84 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$7 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $55 −$47 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$41 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$28 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $84 +$22 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$36 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $2 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+87.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +107.2% +87.4% 53% 53% -7.3%
≤30d 17 +107.2% +87.4% 53% 53% -7.3%
≤90d 17 +107.2% +87.4% 53% 53% -7.3%
all 17 +107.2% +87.4% 53% 53% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover341.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +87.4% 53% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here +69.5% 53% -16.1%
15% +53.1% 47% -24.2%
20% +38.1% 35% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.00 (match) · 344 history records