Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:40:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xadb8…c3f0
crypto · 363 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,828 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,781 · open −$46
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$114
Realized−$5,781
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses182 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)353 / 363
History coverage156d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 10 History 353 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days−$2,646
30 days−$3,351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 52¢ 34¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-36%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 100¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+122%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 37¢ 38¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 40¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $205 $0 −$205 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $22 $0 +2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $23 +$31 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8AM ET Jun 02 $213 −$205 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $413 −$209 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $500 −$481 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4AM ET Jun 02 $216 −$208 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $520 −$520 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 01 $158 −$152 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9AM ET Jun 01 $159 −$150 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 01 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7AM ET Jun 01 $104 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 01 $309 −$299 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $157 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 01 $104 +$35 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 01 $210 +$304 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 01 $105 +$176 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET Jun 01 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 01 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET Jun 01 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 01 $176 +$159 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 01 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 01 $216 −$205 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $417 +$196 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 31 $155 +$68 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12PM ET May 31 $208 −$200 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 31 $104 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9AM ET May 31 $52 −$42 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $103 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8AM ET May 31 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7AM ET May 31 $52 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 31 $207 +$110 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11AM ET May 30 $52 +$43 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 30 $53 −$46 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 30 $207 +$24 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4AM ET May 30 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 30 $181 +$58 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 30 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 30 $104 +$69 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 12AM ET May 30 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET May 30 $104 +$63 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 30 $156 −$8 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12PM ET May 29 $104 +$42 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12PM ET May 29 $111 +$47 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 29 $52 −$45 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 29 $52 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 29 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 29 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 29 $26 +$9 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$5,813
sports 0% −$36
other 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 29m
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 45m
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $15 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $10 1h
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 77¢ $8 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 17h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 17h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 64¢ $53 17h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $48 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $49 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $105 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +783.8% +699.6% 100% 50% +107.8%
≤30d 140 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 47% -26.7%
≤90d 253 -30.7% -37.3% 38% 33% -40.9%
all 353 -6.4% -15.3% 52% 47% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 47% -24.0%
10% -23.4% 42% -31.3%
15% -30.8% 36% -37.9%
20% -37.6% 28% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.52 · official $113.52 (match) · 1062 history records