Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xadb8…63bf crypto 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$537 (-9%) realized −$538 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%80W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$776
sports 6% +$112
other 3% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +24.4% +12.5% 43% 43% -9.3%
≤30d 14 +8.8% -1.6% 43% 43% -11.0%
≤90d 241 -23.9% -31.1% 33% 32% -22.9%
all 242 -24.2% -31.4% 33% 31% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 31% -23.6%
10% -38.0% 28% -30.9%
15% -44.0% 26% -37.6%
20% -49.5% 24% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$16 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$538
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses80 / 162
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)242 / 243
History coverage168d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 58¢ 58¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $109 +$91 +83%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $281 −$1 -0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $33 −$20 -61%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$12 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$25 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$19 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 26 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 26 $10 +$12 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 26 $64 −$8 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 26 $20 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 26 $13 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 06 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 04 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 04 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 04 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 04 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 04 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 04 $3 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 04 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 04 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 04 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 04 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 04 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 03 $45 +$40 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 02 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 02 $18 −$8 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 02 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 02 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 02 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 02 $15 −$14 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 58¢ $122 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $109 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 92¢ $281 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $281 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London SELL EDward Gaming 3¢ $13 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 7¢ $21 5h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 7¢ $12 5h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $17 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $46 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.03 · official $121.03 (match) · 576 history records