Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:44:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xadb6…20d2 other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate15%16W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$15
politics 10% −$3
sports 6% +$46
economics 6% −$1
world 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 +3.7% -6.2% 15% 10% -9.4%
all 105 +3.7% -6.2% 15% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 10% -9.4%
10% -15.2% 10% -18.1%
15% -23.4% 9% -26.0%
20% -30.9% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×8.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses16 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage88d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $136 $136 −$0 (-0%)
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 42¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $28 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $76 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $86 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $237 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 17 $207 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $188 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $207 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $205 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $385 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,295 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 05 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $191 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $349 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $418 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $410 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? May 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $339 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $194 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $348 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 27 $201 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $401 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $335 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $207 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $369 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $198 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $341 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $212 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $521 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $9 6h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 19h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 22h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $136 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 9d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 15d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 16d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 18d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 19d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 19d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 19d
Will Solana reach $110 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 21d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 25d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $86 25d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $26 25d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $26 25d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.31 · official $179.31 (match) · 321 history records