Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:39:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AD 0xadb3…88b9 crypto 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$21 (+2%) realized +$28 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate74%39W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$41
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +15.0% +4.1% 73% 73% -6.8%
≤30d 51 +15.0% +4.1% 73% 73% -6.8%
≤90d 51 +15.0% +4.1% 73% 73% -6.8%
all 53 +15.4% +4.4% 74% 72% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 72% -6.8%
10% -5.6% 72% -15.7%
15% -14.7% 68% -23.9%
20% -23.1% 51% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$35 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses39 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage140d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 67¢ 36¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $69 −$67 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $89 +$54 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$12 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $44 +$24 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $39 +$21 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$6 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $66 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$13 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$16 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $41 +$46 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $33 +$22 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $35 +$20 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $48 +$30 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$27 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $32 +$21 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $14 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$16 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$13 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $23 +$13 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $44 +$23 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $23 +$17 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $19 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$3 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $69 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $58 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $14 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $16 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $66 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $33 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.19 · official $7.04 · 176 history records