Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadb0…1c8c weather 490 markets active 16h ago coverage 59d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$4,503 (+13%) realized +$4,503 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate55%312W / 260L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day58.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 59d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$3,029
other 0% +$61
world 0% −$60
sports 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 +4.8% -5.2% 37% 23% -17.8%
≤30d 314 +28.3% +16.1% 46% 29% -7.7%
≤90d 572 +26.0% +14.0% 55% 29% -5.6%
all 572 +26.0% +14.0% 55% 29% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.0% 29% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here +3.1% 18% -14.6%
15% -6.9% 13% -22.9%
20% -16.0% 10% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,503
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses312 / 260
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)572 / 490
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$71
Trades / day58.8
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 572 Trades
no open positions (160 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 26? Jun 17 $78 −$60 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 16? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 16? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C or higher on April 13? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 21? Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on April 18? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 3? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on April 1? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 12? Jun 17 $6 +$19 +323%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 9? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on March 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -104%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 21? Jun 17 $5 −$6 -126%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 19? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 9? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 7? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 19? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 15 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 3°C on March 29? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 24? Jun 17 $3 +$5 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 5? Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 23? Jun 17 $0 $0 -247%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or higher on April 4? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -127%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on Mar Jun 17 $1 −$1 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 21? Jun 17 $4 −$14 -349%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 13? Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on Mar Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on April 10? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 16? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 24? Jun 17 $3 +$9 +349%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C or below on April 18? Jun 17 $3 −$5 -149%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on March 14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on March 17? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C or below on March 24? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on April 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 17? Jun 17 $12 −$33 -268%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 18? Jun 17 $5 +$10 +198%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 95¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 93¢ $22 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $19 15h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 16h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 53¢ $7 16h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 17h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $17 17h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 74¢ $46 17h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records