Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xadb0…18ff crypto 109 markets active 21h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%52W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$16
other 11% +$5
sports 10% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +36.1% +23.2% 46% 46% +2.1%
≤30d 78 +1.5% -8.2% 49% 46% -15.4%
≤90d 105 +3.6% -6.2% 50% 46% -12.7%
all 105 +3.6% -6.2% 50% 46% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 46% -12.7%
10% -15.2% 41% -21.0%
15% -23.4% 35% -28.7%
20% -30.9% 28% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses52 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)105 / 109
History coverage30d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -41%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +104%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$7 +127%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 +$3 +275%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +118%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +216%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +413%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +59%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $1 +$1 +95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 28 $1 +$4 +341%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? May 27 $1 $0 -9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 27 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 25 $3 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 25 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 25 $3 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 25 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 25 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 25 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 25 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 25 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 22¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 23h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $4 23h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $3 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $3 46h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 16¢ $1 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $4 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $4 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.35 · official $5.35 (match) · 206 history records