Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AD 0xadaf…2d29 crypto 1426 markets active 0h ago coverage 162d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 161d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,658 (-4%) realized −$3,660 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate71%1010W / 414L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,391
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -0.7% -10.1% 54% 54% -13.2%
≤30d 65 -0.7% -10.1% 54% 54% -13.2%
≤90d 372 -3.1% -12.3% 78% 33% -13.1%
all 1424 -2.5% -11.8% 71% 47% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 47% -14.0%
10% -20.2% 34% -22.2%
15% -27.9% 22% -29.7%
20% -35.0% 13% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$64 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$3,660
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1010 / 414
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1424 / 1426
History coverage162d ⚠
Avg bet$64
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 61¢ 64¢ $24 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 55¢ 56¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$11 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$23 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$12 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$21 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$19 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$12 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $25 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.49 · official $35.67 · 3500 history records