Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xadae…e8b2 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$224 (-17%) realized −$224 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$57
other 38% −$254
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-53.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -43.2% -48.6% 29% 29% -8.6%
≤30d 28 -43.2% -48.6% 29% 29% -8.6%
≤90d 34 -48.2% -53.1% 26% 26% -26.1%
all 34 -48.2% -53.1% 26% 26% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.1% 26% -26.1%
10% -57.6% 21% -33.1%
15% -61.7% 21% -39.6%
20% -65.4% 18% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$25 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$224
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 25
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage43d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $51 +$70 +138%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $23 +$8 +36%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$29 +58%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $56 −$55 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $54 +$196 +360%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $78 +$74 +95%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $245 −$19 -8%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $82 +$18 +22%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 −$10 -33%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $30 +$20 +66%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $99 −$98 -99%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $91 −$90 -99%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $20 +$14 +71%
Will Waldo Cortes-Acosta win by KO or TKO? May 10 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Will King Green win by KO or TKO? May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $121 1h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $23 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 86¢ $20 3h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $23 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $80 47h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 47h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $250 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $54 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $152 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $78 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records