Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AD 0xadad…cc57 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$836 (-68%) realized −$796 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -92% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -93% what you keep after slip
Net edge-93%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$142
14 days−$142
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$942
world 11% −$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-92.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -71.7% -74.4% 0% 0% -74.4%
≤30d 1 -71.7% -74.4% 0% 0% -74.4%
≤90d 6 -95.3% -95.7% 0% 0% -93.5%
all 7 -92.2% -92.9% 0% 0% -90.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -92.9% 0% -90.0%
10% -93.6% 0% -91.0%
15% -94.2% 0% -91.9%
20% -94.8% 0% -92.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -114% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -92% · $-wt -106% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$149 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$796
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage98d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $47 $7 −$40 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $199 −$142 -72%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 22 $250 −$213 -85%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $399 −$399 -100%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 25 $60 −$60 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 21 $200 −$147 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.68 · official $6.68 (match) · 16 history records