Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:33:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xadac…aeb2 crypto 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-6%) realized +$22 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate84%59W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day44.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$5
weather 16% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +1.7% -8.0% 84% 54% -7.4%
≤30d 70 +1.7% -8.0% 84% 54% -7.4%
≤90d 70 +1.7% -8.0% 84% 54% -7.4%
all 70 +1.7% -8.0% 84% 54% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 54% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 36% -16.3%
15% -24.8% 10% -24.4%
20% -32.2% 4% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses59 / 11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day44.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 27? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 76¢ 79¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 27? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 27 $9 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 27? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 27? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.93 · official $13.48 · 133 history records