Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AD 0xada8…2a67 sports 171 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$516 (+10%) realized +$481 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%64W / 80L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$991now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$72
14 days+$94
30 days+$502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$564
other 25% −$31
world 15% +$47
crypto 9% −$14
politics 9% −$36
tech 2% +$12
finance 0% −$2
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -13.8% -22.1% 46% 43% -5.4%
≤30d 144 -12.3% -20.7% 44% 41% +1.7%
≤90d 144 -12.3% -20.7% 44% 41% +1.7%
all 144 -12.3% -20.7% 44% 41% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 41% +1.7%
10% -28.3% 38% -8.0%
15% -35.2% 32% -16.9%
20% -41.6% 28% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$991
Realized+$481
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses64 / 80
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions25
Markets (closed)144 / 171
History coverage28d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $150 $131 −$19 (-12%)
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $100 $127 +$27 (+27%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 83¢ $101 $123 +$22 (+22%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 88¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 60¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ 55¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 65¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 47¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 36¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Smith & Wesson (SWBI) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 74¢ 62¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-56%)
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -78%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $263 +$125 +48%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $20 +$8 +40%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Robert MacIntyre finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Op Jun 15 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Alex Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Op Jun 15 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Ryan Fox finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Op Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Op Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$37 +72%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$12 +23%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$19 +93%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $10 +$12 +117%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $25 +$14 +56%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Aaron Rai finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Shane Lowry finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Aaron Rai finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mackenzie Hughes finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Op Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Taylor Pendrith finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Corey Conners finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Nick Taylor finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Shane Lowry finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Corey Conners finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Aaron Rai finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Justin Rose finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Robert MacIntyre finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Op Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $30 +$14 +45%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026- BUY 66¢ $101 2h
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 24h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 61¢ $2 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $50 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 65¢ $10 3d
Will Aaron Rai finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 6d
Will Robert MacIntyre finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Op BUY Yes 46¢ $10 6d
Will Shane Lowry finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $991.33 · official $1,091.42 · 332 history records