Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:53:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xada7…1190 other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$12
politics 28% −$8
sports 8% −$61
economics 6% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 -6.5% -15.4% 3% 0% -9.9%
all 123 -5.4% -14.5% 7% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 2% -9.9%
10% -22.6% 2% -18.5%
15% -30.1% 2% -26.4%
20% -37.0% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage116d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $157 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $185 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $135 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 24 $123 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 22 $180 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 21 $321 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $178 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $143 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $177 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $179 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $144 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $161 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $147 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $133 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $331 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $135 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $147 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $178 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $147 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $149 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $353 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $155 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $114 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $163 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $133 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $136 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $329 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $155 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $1,269 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $163 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 22 $178 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $187 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $156 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $327 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $180 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $143 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 19h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 19h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 35h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 41h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 46h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 10d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 10d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 10d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $15 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $15 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 15d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 15d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 15d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 16d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $157 23d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $157 27d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $135 27d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $135 28d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $123 28d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $123 29d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $180 30d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $180 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 367 history records