Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:00:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AD 0xada7…1e70 other 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$26 (+17%) realized +$25 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate73%24W / 9L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$18
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$1
sports 32% +$16
crypto 23% +$12
world 5% −$2
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +36.6% +23.6% 62% 50% +48.3%
≤30d 33 +25.3% +13.4% 73% 58% +20.7%
≤90d 33 +25.3% +13.4% 73% 58% +20.7%
all 33 +25.3% +13.4% 73% 58% +20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.4% 58% +20.7%
10% +2.5% 48% +9.1%
15% -7.4% 33% -1.4%
20% -16.5% 24% -11.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.97 per $1 lost it wins $3.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses24 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions35
Markets (closed)33 / 68
History coverage26d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 46¢ 87¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+89%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 88¢ 86¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 78¢ 97¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? Yes 59¢ 69¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? No 94¢ 80¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 86¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 64¢ 94¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+47%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 91¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 52¢ 34¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$7 +328%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $1 +$2 +158%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 $0 +31%
Will Shanghai Dongfang win CBA? Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1 +$2 +188%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $5 +$4 +84%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 04 $6 +$7 +104%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 +$1 +44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +35%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $6 −$1 -9%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $5 +$2 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +5%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) May 26 $2 +$1 +36%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $8 +$1 +8%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 24 $2 +$1 +33%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1 +$1 +119%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +26%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $2 −$1 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 6h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 6h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 6h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 6h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 3d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Spurs 63¢ $1 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 13¢ $1 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? BUY No 91¢ $1 6d
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 88¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.48 · official $76.48 (match) · 119 history records