Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:30:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xada6…ca7a crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-7%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%17W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$41
14 days+$39
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$51
other 24% −$8
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.2% -8.4% 42% 42% +13.7%
≤30d 51 -23.6% -30.8% 33% 29% -13.6%
≤90d 60 -32.7% -39.1% 28% 25% -25.1%
all 60 -32.7% -39.1% 28% 25% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.1% 25% -25.1%
10% -45.0% 22% -32.3%
15% -50.3% 15% -38.8%
20% -55.1% 13% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses17 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage30d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $82 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$37 +124%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$14 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$9 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 -33%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 30 $4 −$3 -69%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +112%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 30 $2 +$3 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 30 $1 +$3 +252%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 30 $1 $0 -40%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 30 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 30 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 30 $14 −$7 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 28 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 28 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 28 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 28 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 28 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 28 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 28 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 28 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 28 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $30 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 2¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 205 history records