Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xada2…6bc3
crypto · 653 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$411 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$411 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$411
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses187 / 466
Open positions0
Markets (closed)653 / 653
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day280.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 0 History 653 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$128
7 days−$411
14 days−$411
30 days−$411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Down 35¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+186%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$6 +186%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 76% −$93
other 24% −$317
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $8 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 653 -9.0% -17.7% 29% 29% -22.3%
≤30d 653 -9.0% -17.7% 29% 29% -22.3%
≤90d 653 -9.0% -17.7% 29% 29% -22.3%
all 653 -9.0% -17.7% 29% 29% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover280.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 29% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 28% -29.7%
15% -32.7% 28% -36.5%
20% -39.3% 26% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.80 · official $0.00 (match) · 1763 history records