Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AD 0xada1…5c72 crypto 473 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$931 (-10%) realized −$931 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate65%310W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$45
14 days−$37
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,483
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -4.6% -13.7% 83% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 59 -3.6% -12.8% 83% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 478 -8.8% -17.5% 65% 22% -17.3%
all 478 -8.8% -17.5% 65% 22% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 22% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 8% -25.2%
15% -32.6% 5% -32.5%
20% -39.2% 4% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$931
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses310 / 168
Open positions1
Markets (closed)478 / 473
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 478 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$8 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $27 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $23 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $23 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $22 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $45 −$5 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$3 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $24 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $23 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $22 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $18 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $17 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $8 −$2 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $27 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? SELL No 92¢ $27 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $27 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.36 · official $27.36 (match) · 3500 history records