Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AD 0xad9d…e5b9 crypto 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$443 (-19%) realized −$440 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%102W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$195
7 days−$398
14 days−$398
30 days−$465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$483
other 8% −$91
sports 4% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -26.5% -33.5% 42% 41% -32.6%
≤30d 123 -27.7% -34.6% 41% 40% -34.3%
≤90d 211 -22.6% -30.0% 48% 45% -32.9%
all 211 -22.6% -30.0% 48% 45% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 45% -32.9%
10% -36.7% 38% -39.3%
15% -42.8% 32% -45.2%
20% -48.4% 23% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$440
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses102 / 109
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)211 / 212
History coverage41d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$10 -24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$21 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$73 +342%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$22 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$26 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 58m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $30 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $2 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $7 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.38 · official $7.38 (match) · 405 history records