Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xad98…f91e other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 428d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$3
other 30% +$2
politics 14% +$5
finance 10% −$1
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 46% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 46% 0% -8.9%
all 31 +3.0% -6.8% 58% 6% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 6% -8.4%
10% -15.7% 3% -17.2%
15% -23.9% 3% -25.2%
20% -31.3% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.56 per $1 lost it wins $6.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

428d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage428d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $9 $0 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $17 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $30 +$1 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 22 $37 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 -8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $32 $0 -1%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Dec 13 $7 $0 +1%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? May 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 26 $7 +$4 +62%
Will the Liberal Party win by 125–149 seats? Apr 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Ru Apr 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Nicolae Ciucă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Apr 16 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $51 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $40 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $7 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $7 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $40 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $11 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $35 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $46 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $30 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $2 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $8 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $3 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $21 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $17 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $17 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $52 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $51 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 90¢ $30 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records