Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:48:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xad97…13d1 other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$188 (+12%) realized +$188 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%39W / 27L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days+$209
14 days+$232
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$85
sports 39% +$97
crypto 3% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +24.1% +12.3% 67% 67% +11.8%
≤30d 66 +5.3% -4.8% 59% 59% +3.4%
≤90d 66 +5.3% -4.8% 59% 59% +3.4%
all 66 +5.3% -4.8% 59% 59% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 59% +3.4%
10% -13.9% 59% -6.5%
15% -22.2% 58% -15.6%
20% -29.8% 38% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$18 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$188
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses39 / 27
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage17d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $15 +$17 +109%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $20 +$10 +48%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$17 +86%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $15 +$24 +158%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 27 $12 +$33 +278%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$14 +70%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 +$15 +76%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$13 +65%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 +$10 +50%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$25 +250%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 26 $20 +$8 +40%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$11 +52%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $20 +$14 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$10 +50%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$14 +46%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $33 +$21 +62%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $19 +$24 +124%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$13 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$41 +140%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $51 +$25 +50%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$18 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $51 +$30 +59%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$17 +41%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$18 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$30 +73%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$9 -86%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 13¢ $10 16h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 16h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 67¢ $20 16h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 17h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 67¢ $20 17h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND SELL 99¢ $45 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 26¢ $12 38h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 57¢ $20 39h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 39h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 39h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $20 39h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 39h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Tunisia 71¢ $20 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $20 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 3d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY South Africa 66¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $20 3d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 52¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records