Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad96…d498
economics · 68 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$143,516 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$139,075 · open +$6,105
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$310,398
Realized+$139,075
Unrealized+$6,105
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses54 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)61 / 68
History coverage682d
Avg bet$173,295
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 7 History 61 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$100
14 days+$8,537
30 days+$13,991
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $149,050 $149,625 +$575 (+0%)
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $80,113 $81,014 +$901 (+1%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 98¢ 100¢ $47,279 $47,855 +$576 (+1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 80¢ 96¢ $18,427 $22,274 +$3,846 (+21%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 93¢ 94¢ $7,336 $7,454 +$118 (+2%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 74¢ 77¢ $1,092 $1,131 +$40 (+4%)
Joe Rogan joins 60 Minutes by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $997 $1,045 +$49 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $800 −$100 -12%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $3,824,835 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $303,956 +$1,835 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $427 +$4 +1%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by May 31? Jun 01 $310 $0 +0%
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? Jun 01 $43,635 +$909 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $25,516 +$198 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 30 $257,500 +$5,690 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 28 $6,408 +$29 +0%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 28 $314 +$7 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $12,342 +$226 +2%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $45,836 +$398 +1%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 25 $17,547 +$417 +2%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $50,953 +$326 +1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $305,405 +$2,141 +1%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $30,980 +$212 +1%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $204,469 +$1,553 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $56,171 +$54 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 14 $1,200 $0 -0%
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $90,909 +$91 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $77,167 +$310 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $50 −$40 -80%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $272,181 +$819 +0%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 30 $71 −$64 -90%
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision? Apr 30 $199 +$1 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $271,377 +$1,913 +1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $276,290 +$1,110 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $274,748 +$1,576 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $274,348 +$1,102 +0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $272,195 +$3,559 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $264,098 +$10,725 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $257,363 +$8,497 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $256,020 +$1,343 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $249,745 +$8,097 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 24 $93,563 +$211 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $225,848 +$23,393 +10%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $213,211 +$12,698 +6%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 30 $204,923 +$7,572 +4%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 09 $201,488 +$2,992 +2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Jul 03 $200,383 +$1,107 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $196,040 +$6,135 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 01 $189,816 +$6,722 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $172,059 +$18,066 +10%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $142,104 +$2,151 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Jan 29 $138,988 +$1,831 +1%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 22 $138,418 +$556 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 20 $106,787 +$2,953 +3%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 20 $74,137 +$2,481 +3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $87,033 +$437 +0%
Israel military action against Iraq before November? Oct 30 $86,187 +$603 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 43% +$9,462
economics 32% +$111,174
world 14% +$12,456
other 7% +$9,693
crypto 3% +$1,835
tech 1% +$560
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 17m
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 23m
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $195 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $197 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 2h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 76¢ $76 2h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 76¢ $30 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 2h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 76¢ $12 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $121 3h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $127 3h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $127 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -6.2% -15.2% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 20 +0.2% -9.3% 85% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 29 -5.6% -14.6% 83% 0% -9.2%
all 61 -1.5% -10.8% 89% 2% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 2% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 0% -17.2%
15% -27.2% 0% -25.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $310,398.15 · official $310,398.15 (match) · 2722 history records