Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:10:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad95…0ad3 crypto 279 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,374 (-5%) realized −$2,374 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%110W / 169L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$221
14 days−$221
30 days−$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,290
world 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -23.7% -31.0% 25% 25% -20.4%
≤30d 12 -23.7% -31.0% 25% 25% -20.4%
≤90d 84 -26.6% -33.6% 29% 25% -28.6%
all 279 -14.6% -22.7% 39% 36% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 36% -14.4%
10% -30.1% 32% -22.6%
15% -36.9% 27% -30.1%
20% -43.0% 23% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$92 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,374
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses110 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)279 / 279
History coverage102d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 279 Trades
no open positions (90 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $95 −$90 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $44 −$42 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $111 +$78 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $89 +$149 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $119 −$98 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $32 −$24 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $234 −$104 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $231 −$56 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $132 −$108 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $105 +$199 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 05 $92 −$88 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 05 $196 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 05 $179 +$24 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 03 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 02 $251 −$85 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 02 $99 −$60 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 30 $51 −$38 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 30 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 30 $129 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 30 $142 −$10 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 30 $161 −$83 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 30 $353 −$268 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 30 $393 −$34 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 30 $20 −$16 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 30 $33 −$30 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 30 $239 −$20 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 30 $35 −$28 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 30 $183 −$25 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 30 $202 +$67 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 28 $18 −$10 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 28 $169 −$120 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 28 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 27 $214 −$209 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 27 $103 +$110 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 27 $149 −$130 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 27 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 27 $128 +$21 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 27 $42 −$40 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 27 $114 −$71 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 26 $227 −$119 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 26 $206 −$82 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 26 $114 +$172 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 26 $115 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 26 $135 −$125 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $95 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $44 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $47 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $175 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $64 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $176 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $115 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $115 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $119 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $125 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $106 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $304 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 641 history records