trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 24 | -7.8% | -16.5% | 42% | 8% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.5% | 8% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -24.5% | 4% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -31.8% | 4% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -38.5% | 4% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+33%) |
| Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+9%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 | Jun 17 | $350 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $223 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Toronto FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Jun 17 | $300 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | May 04 | $1,486 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Mar 06 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 06 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Aster be the top performing crypto in February? | Feb 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will PepsiCo Inc (PEP) beat quarterly earnings? | Feb 07 | $2 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) be the best performing company in the Nasdaq | Jan 22 | $2 | −$1 | -27% |
| Will Stacey Abrams be arrested in 2025? | Jan 22 | $2 | $0 | +10% |
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025? | Jan 22 | $2 | $0 | +20% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? | Jan 22 | $4 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Pixelworks (PXLW) beat quarterly earnings? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Liberal Party (V) wins 4% or more of vote in Norwegian election? | Aug 21 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025? | Aug 21 | $4 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Trump say "Epstein" this week? | Jul 12 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? | Feb 04 | $4 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the Cardinals win Super Bowl 2025? | Dec 21 | $323 | $0 | -0% |
| $PEPE vs. $WIF - First to $10B? | Dec 19 | $5 | +$3 | +68% |
| Will the Republican candidate win North Carolina by 4.0% or more? | Nov 08 | $12 | +$1 | +10% |
| TikTok banned in the US in 2024? | Oct 09 | $4 | $0 | -1% |
| Will a Democrat win New Hampshire Governor Election? | Oct 09 | $4 | $0 | -7% |
| 538 favorite when forecast is turned on? | Sep 09 | $1 | $0 | +9% |
| Will a Republican win Alaska Presidential Election? | Aug 02 | $199 | −$6 | -3% |