Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad90…51d2
sports · 37 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$46 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$84 · open −$47
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$883
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions21
Markets (closed)16 / 37
History coverage2d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 21 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$84
14 days+$84
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 50¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 78¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $77 $76 −$2 (-2%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 58¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 58¢ 55¢ $58 $54 −$3 (-6%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $52 $48 −$4 (-8%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners Over 48¢ 50¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+5%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 31¢ 36¢ $24 $28 +$3 (+15%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+36%)
Will Amad Diallo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 40¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 21¢ $21 $4 −$17 (-80%)
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 16¢ $16 $1 −$15 (-91%)
Scott McTominay: 2+ goals Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Over 52¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Yes 33¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$1 -4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 +$50 +101%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $68 +$32 +48%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $40 +$60 +152%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Scott McTominay: 2+ goals Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $52 −$51 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $58 −$58 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$56 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$58 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $36 −$36 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% +$158
other 31% −$114
world 6% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $41 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $2 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $2 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $63 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $55 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $53 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $52 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $52 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $29 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $25 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $45 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $52 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $60 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $25 2h
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $14 23h
Scott McTominay: 2+ goals BUY Yes $3 25h
Scott McTominay: 2+ goals BUY Yes $1 25h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $46 32h
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 16¢ $8 32h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 32h
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 17¢ $9 32h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $40 32h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 32h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $52 32h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 38¢ $39 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $58 33h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $0 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 44% +1.3%
≤30d 16 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 44% +1.3%
≤90d 16 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 44% +1.3%
all 16 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 44% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 44% +1.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 44% -8.4%
15% -25.8% 44% -17.2%
20% -33.1% 38% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $883.12 · official $883.12 (match) · 63 history records