Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad8c…8cc3
other · 444 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,873 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,059 · open −$48
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$2,059
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses174 / 267
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions3
Markets (closed)441 / 444
History coverage549d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 3 History 441 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$166
7 days−$85
14 days+$361
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$6 (-82%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $18 $1 −$17 (-96%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card) Deiveson Figueiredo 18¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Rico 8¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Zhang Mingyang 67¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Tallison Teixeira 17¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Under 37¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 13 $108 +$40 +38%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$99 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$4 -4%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $105 +$165 +158%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $26 +$224 +874%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $202 +$9 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $110 +$41 +38%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $95 −$93 -98%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $191 −$6 -3%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $87 −$3 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $408 +$18 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $88 −$16 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $53 −$13 -24%
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? Jun 09 $108 +$64 +59%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $207 −$168 -81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $108 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? Jun 07 $77 +$27 +36%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 07 $45 +$55 +122%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $101 +$58 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $101 +$80 +79%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $156 +$44 +28%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $47 +$14 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $152 +$98 +64%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $115 +$47 +41%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $89 +$26 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 06 $758 +$32 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 05 $308 −$52 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $130 −$4 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $33 −$32 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $57 +$101 +177%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $20 −$19 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $152 +$111 +73%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $138 −$61 -45%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $107 −$90 -84%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $24 −$23 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $180 +$70 +39%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $50 −$50 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $34 −$34 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $152 +$17 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $101 +$26 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% −$1,354
sports 23% +$578
world 11% −$504
politics 11% −$984
finance 3% +$251
crypto 2% −$374
tech 2% +$707
weather 0% −$237
culture 0% −$192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 19h
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall SELL Fury 99¢ $148 19h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 25h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $0 29h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $2 29h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $8 29h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $14 29h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $7 29h
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall BUY Fury 72¢ $88 29h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $12 29h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $4 29h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $32 29h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $4 29h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $4 29h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $3 29h
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall BUY Fury 72¢ $20 30h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $101 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $97 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $101 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $105 2d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $90 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +8.6% -1.8% 36% 28% -10.3%
≤30d 98 -6.2% -15.1% 40% 36% -8.4%
≤90d 148 -7.1% -16.0% 43% 39% -6.9%
all 441 -5.3% -14.3% 39% 36% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 36% -13.2%
10% -22.5% 31% -21.5%
15% -30.0% 26% -29.1%
20% -36.9% 21% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.23 · official $2.23 (match) · 2456 history records