Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad89…f6e1 other 210 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$295,550 (+18%) realized +$310,127 · open −$14,577
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate72%137W / 52L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$7,773per market
Trades / day69.3pace
Fees−$5,927est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$234,518now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$10,381
sports 23% +$66,343
other 16% +$978
world 9% +$6,166
crypto 7% +$1,204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +6.0% -4.1% 84% 48% +11.6%
≤30d 98 +13.4% +2.6% 78% 44% +2.3%
≤90d 189 +39.2% +26.0% 72% 39% -2.8%
all 189 +39.2% +26.0% 72% 39% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.0% 39% -2.8%
10% +13.9% 24% -12.1%
15% ← realistic here +2.9% 19% -20.6%
20% -7.2% 17% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$2,971) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +66% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$846 vs −$787 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.13 per $1 lost it wins $3.13
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$234,518
Realized+$310,127
Unrealized−$14,577
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses137 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$5,927
Open positions21
Markets (closed)189 / 210
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$7,773
Trades / day69.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 58¢ $85,000 $99,450 +$14,450 (+17%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 42¢ $85,000 $70,550 −$14,450 (-17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $22,339 $22,757 +$418 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $20,191 $20,925 +$734 (+4%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $7,495 $7,736 +$241 (+3%)
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Antonia Ruzic 37¢ 44¢ $4,551 $5,349 +$798 (+18%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 88¢ 96¢ $1,914 $2,096 +$183 (+10%)
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 84¢ $1,710 $1,968 +$258 (+15%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 90¢ 99¢ $1,326 $1,463 +$136 (+10%)
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 67¢ 16¢ $2,898 $714 −$2,185 (-75%)
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 90¢ 98¢ $315 $343 +$28 (+9%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 84¢ $260 $278 +$18 (+7%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 38¢ 43¢ $190 $215 +$25 (+13%)
Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22? No 50¢ 33¢ $325 $214 −$111 (-34%)
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22? Yes 74¢ 13¢ $873 $154 −$719 (-82%)
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 90¢ 96¢ $104 $111 +$7 (+7%)
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 91¢ 98¢ $77 $83 +$6 (+8%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 83¢ 92¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+11%)
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? Yes 20¢ 80¢ $8 $32 +$24 (+302%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+6%)
Will Sincere Rhea win Love Island USA Season 8? No 50¢ 94¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+88%)
Will KC Chandler win Love Island USA Season 8? No 40¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+146%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Milan: Completed Match: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro Jun 28 $519 +$5 +1%
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro Jun 28 $77 +$2 +2%
Will Uzbekistan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $35 +$5 +14%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $3,387 +$2,113 +62%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $7,514 +$1,878 +25%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2,418 −$1,155 -48%
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 26 $775 +$185 +24%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 26 $2,971 +$416 +14%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 26 $1,323 +$177 +13%
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 26 $4,000 +$633 +16%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 26 $1,726 +$147 +8%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20,000 +$10,303 +52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $1,700 +$280 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $4,847 +$269 +6%
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 24 $2,415 +$99 +4%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $1,925 +$422 +22%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 23 $414 +$17 +4%
Will Norway be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 23 $383 +$12 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $3,506 +$52 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 22 $5,510 +$112 +2%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,738 +$2,062 +119%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $4,571 −$1,075 -24%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,505 +$181 +12%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $3,347 −$3,343 -100%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $7,170 +$354 +5%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3,705 +$538 +14%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1,674 +$500 +30%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -18%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $418 +$39 +9%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3,200 +$600 +19%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3,755 −$3,755 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7,600 +$2,400 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $408 +$35 +9%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 14 $932 +$19 +2%
Julia Grabher vs. Nuria Brancaccio: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $59 +$1 +2%
Set Handicap: Grabher (-1.5) vs Brancaccio (+1.5) Jun 14 $123 +$3 +2%
Set Handicap: Gorgodze (-1.5) vs Semenistaja (+1.5) Jun 14 $406 +$8 +2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $19,788 +$404 +2%
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,197 +$81 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $4,263 −$602 -14%
HSBC Championships: Completed Match: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $1,440 +$560 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $951 +$5 +0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 13 $4,604 +$113 +2%
Set Handicap: Mboko/Williams (-1.5) vs Fernandez/Siegemund (+1.5) Jun 11 $35 +$15 +43%
Will Panathinaikos Athens win Greek Basketball League? Jun 11 $187 +$279 +149%
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $536 +$34 +6%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $240 +$18 +7%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 10 $689 +$498 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Sumit Nagal 49¢ $1 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 49¢ $1 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Sumit Nagal 49¢ $2 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 49¢ $6 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Sumit Nagal 49¢ $1 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Sumit Nagal 49¢ $5 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Sumit Nagal 49¢ $1 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Sumit Nagal 49¢ $5 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Sumit Nagal 49¢ $1 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Sumit Nagal 49¢ $1 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Sumit Nagal 49¢ $1 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 49¢ $1 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 49¢ $3 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Sumit Nagal 49¢ $1 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 49¢ $3 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Sumit Nagal 49¢ $3 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 49¢ $5 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Sumit Nagal 49¢ $1 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 49¢ $5 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 49¢ $1 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Sumit Nagal 49¢ $1 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Sumit Nagal 49¢ $1 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Sumit Nagal 49¢ $5 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Sumit Nagal 49¢ $1 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 49¢ $5 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Sumit Nagal 49¢ $1 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 49¢ $1 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 49¢ $1 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Sumit Nagal 49¢ $1 2h
Milan: Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 49¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234,518.42 · official $234,518.42 (match) · 3500 history records