Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xad89…f55e crypto 208 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$369 (-12%) realized −$359 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%116W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day96.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$423
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 204 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 57% -22.3%
≤30d 204 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 57% -22.3%
≤90d 204 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 57% -22.3%
all 204 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 57% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 57% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 57% -29.7%
15% -30.1% 57% -36.5%
20% -36.9% 53% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$359
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses116 / 88
Open positions4
Markets (closed)204 / 208
History coverage3d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day96.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 54¢ 50¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 56¢ 50¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 57¢ 50¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$37 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $82 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $83 +$68 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $82 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$12 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $82 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $72 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.33 · official $110.33 (match) · 423 history records