Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:57:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AD 0xad88…3c1e sports 1196 markets active 0h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 221d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$700 (-0%) realized −$577 · open −$123
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%600W / 581L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$2,231est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$262
7 days−$42
14 days+$1,120
30 days−$915
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$1,436
other 3% −$781
culture 2% +$194
politics 1% +$357
tech 0% +$64
world 0% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +1.9% -7.8% 51% 51% -10.1%
≤30d 256 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 47% -12.4%
≤90d 995 -2.9% -12.2% 46% 46% -19.7%
all 1181 +3.1% -6.7% 51% 50% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 50% -10.4%
10% -15.6% 48% -19.0%
15% -23.8% 46% -26.8%
20% -31.2% 42% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$178 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$2,295
Realized−$577
Unrealized−$123
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses600 / 581
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$2,231
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1181 / 1196
History coverage222d ⚠
Avg bet$196
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 1181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 19¢ $200 $285 +$85 (+43%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 53¢ 51¢ $212 $204 −$8 (-4%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers 49¢ 50¢ $201 $203 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 51¢ 50¢ $204 $202 −$2 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Baltimore Orioles 56¢ 56¢ $202 $200 −$2 (-1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ 48¢ $201 $199 −$2 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 51¢ 48¢ $204 $190 −$14 (-7%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 50¢ $0 $188 +$188 (+0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 48¢ $205 $175 −$31 (-15%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $129 −$21 (-14%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 41¢ 23¢ $205 $115 −$90 (-44%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ 42¢ $102 $85 −$17 (-17%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ 50¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 35¢ $210 $0 −$210 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $206 +$144 +70%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 22 $207 $0 +0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 22 $207 −$204 -99%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 22 $206 $0 +0%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $208 $0 +0%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 22 $205 −$202 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 20 $206 +$144 +70%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $211 +$189 +90%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $208 +$172 +83%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $204 +$176 +86%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 19 $204 −$202 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 19 $205 −$202 -98%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 19 $205 −$202 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 19 $211 −$208 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $211 +$189 +90%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $208 +$172 +83%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 18 $207 +$123 +60%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $46 +$54 +119%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $210 −$206 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 18 $204 −$201 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $208 +$172 +83%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $206 +$234 +114%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $206 +$134 +65%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $206 +$234 +114%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $209 +$91 +44%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $178 −$176 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $207 −$204 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $205 −$202 -98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 17 $204 −$202 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $208 −$205 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $203 +$197 +97%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $204 +$126 +62%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $204 +$116 +57%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $205 +$215 +105%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $108 +$89 +83%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $130 −$130 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $205 −$202 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $204 −$201 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $206 −$204 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 16 $206 −$202 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $207 −$203 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $208 +$152 +73%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $204 +$176 +86%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $210 +$180 +86%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $208 +$152 +73%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $205 +$215 +105%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 15 $200 −$198 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $204 −$201 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $3 1m
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $8 16m
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $3 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $8 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $204 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 56¢ $204 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $207 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 49¢ $204 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 51¢ $207 28h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 51¢ $207 28h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $206 28h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ $206 28h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $208 28h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $208 28h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 51¢ $207 29h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $205 29h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 53¢ $204 4d
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 65¢ $204 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $211 4d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ $203 4d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ $205 4d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ $208 4d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 58¢ $206 4d
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $205 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $211 4d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 54¢ $208 5d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 62¢ $207 5d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 43¢ $210 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $211 5d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 61¢ $204 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,294.71 · official $2,294.71 (match) · 3500 history records