Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad87…6a86 world 337 markets active 1h ago coverage 207d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 206d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized +$977 · open −$1,022
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate57%185W / 139L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$923per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$412est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$4,363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 207d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$13,198
culture 18% +$4,927
other 15% +$2,945
sports 14% +$3,826
politics 11% +$4,175
tech 6% −$76
economics 3% −$994
crypto 1% +$243
finance 0% +$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +12.1% +1.4% 70% 66% -2.1%
≤30d 60 +1.4% -8.3% 67% 58% -9.3%
≤90d 124 +1.9% -7.8% 67% 51% -11.0%
all 324 +7.1% -3.1% 57% 35% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 35% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.4% 23% -17.9%
15% -20.9% 14% -25.9%
20% -28.6% 11% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$915) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$428 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$4,363
Realized+$977
Unrealized−$1,022
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses185 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$412
Open positions20
Markets (closed)324 / 337
History coverage207d ⚠
Avg bet$923
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 12¢ 39¢ $724 $2,325 +$1,601 (+221%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 77¢ 89¢ $766 $887 +$121 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 76¢ $820 $765 −$55 (-7%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 8¢ $523 $170 −$353 (-68%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $102 $80 −$22 (-21%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $60 $34 −$26 (-44%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $8 $27 +$19 (+226%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $266 $26 −$240 (-90%)
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 Yes 13¢ 13¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $340 $14 −$326 (-96%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $14 $4 −$10 (-71%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-64%)
Will Monica Rodriguez win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $220 $2 −$218 (-99%)
Will Austin Beutner win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $220 $2 −$218 (-99%)
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $220 $2 −$218 (-99%)
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $220 $2 −$218 (-99%)
Will Lindsey Horvath win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $220 $2 −$218 (-99%)
Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $220 $2 −$218 (-99%)
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $220 $2 −$218 (-99%)
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $200 $1 −$198 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,432 +$568 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $540 −$147 -27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $965 −$390 -40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,147 +$746 +35%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,311 +$189 +14%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $611 +$100 +16%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $343 +$97 +28%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $756 +$194 +26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $637 +$139 +22%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $410 −$371 -90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $450 +$110 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $304 +$171 +56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $850 +$148 +17%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $180 +$260 +144%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $138 +$62 +45%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $397 +$103 +26%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $325 +$35 +11%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,674 +$306 +18%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $890 +$110 +12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $597 +$332 +56%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,309 −$19 -1%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $340 +$650 +191%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $491 −$490 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $520 −$340 -65%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $745 +$245 +33%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $530 −$246 -46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $627 +$193 +31%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $899 +$359 +40%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $668 −$534 -80%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $379 +$602 +159%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $126 −$28 -22%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $856 +$55 +6%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,610 +$370 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,163 −$1,163 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $930 +$70 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $377 +$421 +112%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $682 +$627 +92%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $507 +$92 +18%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,003 +$308 +31%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,590 +$410 +26%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $4,342 −$485 -11%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,413 +$187 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,763 −$1,760 -100%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 09 $2,902 +$736 +25%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 06 $7,070 −$2,097 -30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $167 −$165 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $282 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $78 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $266 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $195 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL No 40¢ $393 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $495 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $1 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $14 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $29 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $1,432 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $393 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $598 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $180 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $53 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $413 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $154 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $109 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $7 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $43 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $180 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $80 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $820 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $105 18h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 22¢ $83 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $15 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,362.82 · official $4,362.82 (match) · 3500 history records