Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xad87…f9a1 sports 676 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$732 (-3%) realized −$723 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%333W / 338L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$47
14 days−$47
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$674
crypto 10% +$56
other 9% −$243
politics 1% +$24
world 0% −$6
economics 0% −$2
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.9% -8.7% 44% 44% -15.0%
≤30d 50 -7.4% -16.2% 42% 42% -22.4%
≤90d 117 -13.0% -21.3% 43% 42% -19.7%
all 671 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 47% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 47% -11.8%
10% -24.3% 44% -20.3%
15% -31.6% 37% -28.0%
20% -38.3% 30% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$24 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$723
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses333 / 338
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions6
Markets (closed)671 / 676
History coverage243d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 671 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 34¢ 34¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 270 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$22 -71%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $20 +$18 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$53 +172%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$19 +185%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 −$18 -91%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +101%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $31 +$23 +74%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -58%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $41 −$13 -31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $81 +$67 +83%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs May 31 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 31 $30 −$30 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 +$26 +86%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 30 $67 −$66 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $252 −$159 -63%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $71 −$5 -7%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $30 −$1 -4%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $51 +$25 +50%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 May 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 22 $41 −$40 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 22 $51 −$3 -6%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $30 +$31 +101%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 22 $20 +$19 +93%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro May 21 $30 +$10 +32%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Petra Marcinko vs Jessica Bouzas Man May 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $20 +$17 +86%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $50 +$22 +44%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 May 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $51 +$84 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $41 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $20 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $50 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 36¢ $20 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 38¢ $51 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $61 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 50¢ $20 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 13h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 13h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $29 32h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Over $2 32h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 33h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 33h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 33h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 33h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $10 34h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $54 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.43 · official $91.43 (match) · 1570 history records