Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:47:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad86…b39e sports 268 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$631 (-8%) realized −$631 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%113W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$484
7 days−$541
14 days−$599
30 days−$585
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$81
crypto 33% −$547
other 6% −$301
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +35.3% +22.4% 38% 35% -28.6%
≤30d 79 +28.7% +16.4% 38% 35% -29.3%
≤90d 265 +1.3% -8.3% 43% 38% -18.1%
all 265 +1.3% -8.3% 43% 38% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 38% -18.1%
10% -17.1% 37% -26.0%
15% -25.1% 33% -33.1%
20% -32.5% 29% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$19 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$631
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses113 / 152
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions2
Markets (closed)265 / 268
History coverage63d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 54¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $145 +$132 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $149 +$145 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $207 −$109 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$100 -94%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $87 +$149 +172%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $50 +$48 +97%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$3 -7%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $99 +$78 +78%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $39 −$38 -98%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $104 +$133 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $90 −$85 -95%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +101%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$9 +303%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $24 −$23 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$13 +132%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $36 −$29 -80%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$27 +1385%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $41 −$4 -10%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +90%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$20 +390%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$13 +63%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $44 −$5 -12%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $9 +$10 +112%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $15 +$10 +66%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$2 -82%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $16 +$11 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $12 18m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $277 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $145 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $149 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 1h
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $102 11h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $236 11h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $87 14h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 14h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $97 14h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $48 18h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $177 18h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $99 18h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $39 19h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $237 19h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $50 21h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $51 21h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 43¢ $104 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $90 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $83 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $60 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.72 · official $21.72 (match) · 607 history records