Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad84…eb7a crypto 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-7%) realized −$20 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%52W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -18.9% -26.6% 44% 44% -15.6%
≤30d 117 -18.9% -26.6% 44% 44% -15.6%
≤90d 117 -18.9% -26.6% 44% 44% -15.6%
all 117 -18.9% -26.6% 44% 44% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.6% 44% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -33.6% 44% -23.7%
15% -40.0% 44% -31.1%
20% -45.9% 44% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses52 / 65
Open positions2
Markets (closed)117 / 119
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 57¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$2 (+75%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.53 · official $5.90 (match) · 218 history records