Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AD 0xad84…1897 sports 514 markets active 1h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$477 (+1%) realized +$192 · open +$285
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%232W / 281L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$645est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,914now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,805
7 days+$475
14 days+$1,237
30 days+$953
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$1,356
other 19% +$608
crypto 2% +$901
politics 0% −$3
world 0% −$64
finance 0% −$9
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +37.4% +24.3% 44% 42% -7.4%
≤30d 213 -2.7% -12.0% 43% 42% -6.9%
≤90d 504 -6.7% -15.6% 44% 43% -9.9%
all 513 -5.7% -14.7% 45% 44% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 44% -9.8%
10% -22.8% 42% -18.5%
15% -30.3% 38% -26.3%
20% -37.1% 30% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$80 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$1,914
Realized+$192
Unrealized+$285
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses232 / 281
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$645
Open positions1
Markets (closed)513 / 514
History coverage214d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 513 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $1,628 $1,914 +$285 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $912 +$720 +79%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $293 −$3 -1%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $402 −$394 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $153 +$347 +226%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $174 −$20 -12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,402 −$2,232 -93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $509 −$145 -28%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $815 −$508 -62%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $407 +$617 +152%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $507 +$453 +89%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $203 −$101 -50%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 +$268 +262%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $101 +$71 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $24 +$81 +346%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $968 +$901 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2,029 +$99 +5%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $517 +$354 +68%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $537 −$20 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,468 −$562 -38%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $508 +$591 +116%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $233 −$229 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $133 −$130 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $709 −$700 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $193 −$189 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $778 +$403 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $154 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $507 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $708 −$700 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $305 +$339 +111%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $77 +$711 +928%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $102 +$408 +398%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $92 +$178 +194%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$51 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$48 +95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$455 +886%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $108 +$67 +62%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $698 +$304 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 +$77 +152%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,640 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $709 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $203 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $88 15h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 20¢ $37 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 0¢ $15 38h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 26¢ $402 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $500 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $153 46h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 34¢ $153 46h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $174 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 3¢ $65 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 7¢ $104 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $2,402 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 SELL Over 29¢ $364 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 13¢ $264 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 20¢ $42 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $509 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $307 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $1,025 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 46¢ $508 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $407 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $961 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 31¢ $102 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $102 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $507 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 79¢ $98 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $101 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,913.82 · official $1,913.82 (match) · 1085 history records