Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AD 0xad82…3df1 crypto 465 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,515 (+0%) realized +$4,515 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate83%387W / 81L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$2,191per market
Trades / day58.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$302
7 days+$1,459
14 days−$929
30 days+$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$6,423
other 8% +$109
sports 3% +$46
finance 1% +$8
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -8.4% -17.1% 68% 37% -7.6%
≤30d 314 -3.8% -13.0% 76% 40% -9.4%
≤90d 468 -3.0% -12.3% 83% 28% -8.9%
all 468 -3.0% -12.3% 83% 28% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 28% -8.9%
10% -20.7% 21% -17.7%
15% ← realistic here -28.3% 11% -25.6%
20% -35.4% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$2,183) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$106 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,515
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses387 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)468 / 465
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$2,191
Trades / day58.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 468 Trades
no open positions (68 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $88 +$77 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $86 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$13 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $1,101 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $114 +$54 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $415 +$385 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $211 −$204 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $93 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$32 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$12 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $215 +$83 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $98 −$95 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $64 +$33 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1,681 +$84 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $54 +$40 +74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $539 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $63 +$28 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $181 +$52 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,039 +$42 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $2,760 +$28 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $8,558 +$9 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2,200 +$22 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1,969 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $2,200 +$22 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $21,216 +$1,014 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $2,200 +$22 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $20,848 +$21 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $235 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $792 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $2,200 +$22 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$40 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$49 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $327 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 08 $2,200 +$22 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3PM ET Jun 07 $192 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $432 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $5,873 +$30 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $166 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,101 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $168 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $51 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $16 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $19 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $23 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $13 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $28 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records