Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:00:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0xad81…d891
crypto · 187 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$313 +29%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$310 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized+$310
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses72 / 114
Open positions1
Markets (closed)186 / 187
History coverage6d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day31.6
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 186 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days+$310
14 days+$310
30 days+$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 48¢ 80¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+68%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$150 +2811%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$313
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 -3.1% -12.3% 39% 38% -13.3%
≤30d 186 -3.1% -12.3% 39% 38% -13.3%
≤90d 186 -3.1% -12.3% 39% 38% -13.3%
all 186 -3.1% -12.3% 39% 38% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 38% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 35% -21.6%
15% -28.4% 34% -29.1%
20% -35.4% 32% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.32 · official $5.01 · 266 history records