Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad81…93f6 crypto 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$255 (+3%) realized +$255 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate70%71W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$288
14 days−$19
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -7.1% -16.0% 70% 39% -18.4%
≤30d 102 +9.2% -1.2% 70% 44% -9.8%
≤90d 102 +9.2% -1.2% 70% 44% -9.8%
all 102 +9.2% -1.2% 70% 44% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 44% -9.8%
10% -10.6% 25% -18.5%
15% -19.3% 17% -26.3%
20% -27.2% 12% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$35 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$255
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses71 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage16d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$19 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $31 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$18 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$47 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $139 −$57 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $84 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $132 +$20 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $83 +$25 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $153 −$50 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$51 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $208 −$52 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $203 −$150 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $255 +$37 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $209 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $202 +$8 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $31 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $41 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 340 history records