Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad80…7069 finance 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-2%) realized +$2 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 74% −$6
tech 25% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -12.9% -21.2% 0% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 3 -12.9% -21.2% 0% 0% -13.0%
≤90d 3 -12.9% -21.2% 0% 0% -13.0%
all 3 -12.9% -21.2% 0% 0% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 0% -13.0%
10% -28.8% 0% -21.3%
15% -35.6% 0% -28.9%
20% -42.0% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Factset Research Systems (FDS) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $47 $42 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 24 $41 −$1 -4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 24 $30 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Factset Research Systems (FDS) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 80¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 1h
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $29 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 3h
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 3h
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 94¢ $20 3h
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 98¢ $21 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.48 · official $42.48 (match) · 9 history records