Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:49:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad7e…5c06 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$6
other 23% +$2
politics 8% −$1
crypto 7% +$1
culture 6% +$10
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 12 -2.4% -11.7% 42% 0% -11.0%
all 36 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 3% -8.8%
10% -18.4% 3% -17.5%
15% -26.3% 3% -25.5%
20% -33.5% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage481d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $88 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $28 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $21 −$7 -32%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 28 $11 $0 +2%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 20 May 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Apr 29 $4 $0 +9%
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 100m and 110m on opening weekend? Apr 04 $21 $0 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $6 −$2 -34%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will Johni Broome win the Wooden Award? Apr 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 01 $27 $0 -0%
PartyDAO airdrop in Q1 2025? Mar 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 26 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $1 $0 -25%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $26 +$1 +4%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 22 $26 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Million" 10+ times during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 21 $24 +$1 +3%
Will "I Am Ready, Warden" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Mar 20 $14 +$10 +72%
Blues vs. Stars Mar 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'The Brutalist' win 6+ Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 02 $14 $0 -1%
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 02 $15 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $31 39m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $31 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $7 32h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $7 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $14 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $14 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $29 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $27 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $26 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $31 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $31 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $15 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $28 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $14 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $21 30d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $34 32d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $26 33d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $7 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $28 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $6 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $34 33d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $13 33d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $21 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records