Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:42:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xad7e…fb48 crypto 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+1%) realized +$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%100W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$7
14 days+$18
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 35 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 3% -8.6%
≤90d 93 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 1% -8.6%
all 101 +1.4% -8.2% 99% 1% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 1% -8.7%
10% -17.0% 1% -17.4%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×477.32 per $1 lost it wins $477.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses100 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage111d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $105 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $158 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $156 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $153 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $151 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $147 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $146 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $143 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $139 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $134 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 30 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 29 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 24 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 23 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 21 $75 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 19 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 18 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16? May 17 $73 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $109 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 97¢ $105 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $95 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 93¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $105 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $83 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $20 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $102 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 80¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $161 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $161 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $158 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $156 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $153 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $151 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $151 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $151 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $150 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $140 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $9 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $147 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $146 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $143 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $143 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? BUY No 97¢ $40 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $139 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY No 93¢ $20 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $117 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $105 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 96¢ $30 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.56 · official $108.56 (match) · 206 history records