trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -19.0% | -26.7% | 38% | 38% | -14.6% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -19.0% | -26.7% | 38% | 38% | -14.6% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -19.0% | -26.7% | 38% | 38% | -14.6% |
| all | 25 | -44.0% | -49.3% | 28% | 28% | -39.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -49.3% | 28% | -39.9% |
| 10% | -54.2% | 20% | -45.6% |
| 15% | -58.6% | 16% | -50.9% |
| 20% | -62.7% | 16% | -55.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $50 | $59 | +$9 (+18%) |
| Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners | Under | 68¢ | 78¢ | $25 | $28 | +$3 (+14%) |
| France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | Under | 52¢ | 50¢ | $23 | $22 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Germany (-1.5) | Jun 20 | $25 | +$16 | +65% |
| Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) | Jun 20 | $25 | −$25 | -99% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $25 | −$25 | -99% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $51 | +$36 | +70% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | Jun 17 | $50 | −$24 | -48% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $51 | +$44 | +86% |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? | Jun 14 | $30 | −$8 | -26% |
| Games Total: O/U 3.5 | Mar 22 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? | Feb 23 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | Feb 22 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | Feb 09 | $30 | +$29 | +96% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Feb 09 | $10 | +$1 | +15% |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Dec 04 | $2 | +$1 | +32% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Dec 04 | $15 | −$1 | -6% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Dec 03 | $20 | +$3 | +17% |
| Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-03? | Dec 02 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | Nov 28 | $10 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Nov 28 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 | Nov 28 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Charlie Kirk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | Nov 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Nov 28 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Nov 28 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | May 06 | $128 | −$128 | -100% |
| Will no new pope be elected in 2025? | May 04 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |