Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad7a…20f1 sports 28 markets active 9h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-26%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate32%9W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$15
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$15
crypto 31% −$6
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -44.4% -49.7% 29% 6% -41.1%
≤30d 28 -41.7% -47.2% 32% 18% -38.6%
≤90d 28 -41.7% -47.2% 32% 18% -38.6%
all 28 -41.7% -47.2% 32% 18% -38.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.2% 18% -38.6%
10% -52.3% 11% -44.4%
15% -56.9% 4% -49.8%
20% -61.1% 4% -54.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses9 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +1%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 10 $8 $0 -5%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 10 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $9 −$2 -17%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 09 $1 $0 -14%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 09 $1 $0 -21%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Geekay Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $4 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $4 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group Jun 09 $2 +$1 +64%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 09 $3 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 84¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 22¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 37¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 40¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 52¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 58¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L BUY RUSTEC 95¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L BUY RUSTEC 94¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records